This project involved real estate market analysis and development program/strategy for a 50 hectare waterfront site facing Singapore. This was a short exercise for a competition submittal to a major PRC developer. 

In the midst of an unprecedented building boom across the state of Johor, much of it driven by outside money, our study warned of the consequences of over building and advocated for a proper market study across several major property types: residential (including senior housing/CCRCs and low/middle-market housing aimed at locals), hospitality, retail, F&B, and education components. For the competition, a quick market review was provided to provide general context, and a preliminary program was developed so that the planning and design team could make an informed proposal, which is what is shown in the image.

The submittal did not win the competition, however. The winning scheme proposed an extraordinary amount of speculative development that was out of context for the location, beyond the capacity of local infrastructure, and aimed primarily at high-end foreign investors from China/Singapore. As there was little if any market support for such product, the project ultimately did not move forward. The developer as of 2023 appears to be on the brink of bankruptcy from an overly speculative approach to this and other projects. The local market would have supported a modest, but still significant development in line with what we recommended. This would also have been more economical and less risky to build.

There are lessons to be learned from this example, which is representative of a host of broader issues in the industry. There is a need for more real estate research, particularly with large scale projects. Technology has advanced to the point where it has become too easy to draw overly ambitious proposals; inexperienced players often get carried away by exciting images and then lose focus on the fundamentals. Clients - both private sector and public - may expect consultants to advise on such issues, but most planners and designers lack real estate expertise and chose instead to focus on compelling imagery at the expense of any attention to market considerations, value vs. cost, technical or implementation issues. Design competitions are usually not judged on whether a proposal is realistic. This game is foolish and pointless at best, and sometimes destructive, but many designers and their speculator clients play it anyway.  

Brian Jennett led the team completing the economic and real estate scope for the consultation while employed as a Director of Economics + Planning at AECOM Singapore. Other colleagues were responsible for the planning and design.